← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional

decks
8 (8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
44 19-17-8
overall winrate
52.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9% avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
51.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1335 · median 1326 · range 1198–1532 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
993 Q1 1189 Q3 1404 1571
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 13.1% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 50.9% +0.6
Wind Shadowstrike 6.1% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 52.4% +1.6
Fire Aggro 5.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.4
Water Fractal 5.1% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 60.9% +7.0
Water Genbu 5.1% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 64.2% +9.1
Wind Allies 5.1% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.4% -5.8
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.4% +8.6
Slimes 4.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.8
Water Aetherwing 4.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.3% -14.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -17.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.5% -4.1
Fire Oblation 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.0% -14.3
Fire Aetherwing 2.0% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 43.5% -6.2
Fire Suited 2.0% 0
Fire Suzaku 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.3% +21.4
Fire Umbra Alice 2.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 57.5% +7.2
Wind Arcane 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.7% -16.5
Wind Astra Cleric 2.0% 0
Fire Exia 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -3.0
Water Allies 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.3% -20.4
Water Astra Ranger 1.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 51.3% +1.0
Water Crux Assassin 1.0% 0
Water Tera Cleric 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Wind Jin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.8% +6.0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.7
Wind Overlord 1.0% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.0% -8.0
Wind Umbra Ciel 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.8
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.4% +23.0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +1.00 1 0 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 1 0 0
Unmake Duality -1.00 0 1 0
Sudden Steel -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Evercurrent Raider +1.00 1 0 0
Infernal Vessel +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0
Topsy Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Undeniable Truth -1.00 0 1 0
Incarnate Majesty -1.00 0 1 0
Undying Dreams +1.00 1 0 0
Nimue, Cursed Touch -1.00 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 1 0 0
Reprogram -1.00 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Protect Her At All Costs -1.00 0 1 0
Flared Iridescence +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/46658/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage