← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.4% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.9% | +7.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 64.2% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |